After days and weeks of speculation the inevitable happened. aTm has decided to forgo its membership in the Big 12 for a membership elsewhere (all signs point to SEC). The official statement includes the following: "After much thought and consideration, and pursuant to the action of the (Texas A&M University System) Board of Regents authorizing me to take action related to Texas A&M University's athletic conference alignment, I have determined it is in the best interest of Texas A&M to make application to join another athletic conference," President R. Bowen Loftin wrote to Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe in the letter dated August 31, 2011.
"We appreciate the Big 12's willingness to engage in a dialogue to end our relationship through a mutually agreeable settlement," Loftin added. "We, too, desire that this process be as amicable and prompt as possible and result in a resolution of all outstanding issues, including mutual waivers by Texas A&M and the conference on behalf of all the remaining members." Translation... We have wanted to leave for weeks now thanks for letting us do this on the most cheap. We (aTm) don't really care a lick about the Big Texas conference and can't wait to get the hell out of dodge. May University of Texas burn forever.
As a result the dominoes may begin to fall with conference realignment. What are the ramifications for WVU? Well I see three real possibilities. I will place them into order of likelihood.
- WVU remains a member of the Big East with that conference picking up the remaining Big 12 pieces, after it is finally pummeled and plundered by the Pac 12 and Big 10/11/12etc. That or the Big 12 and Big East for a football only alliance to preserve both.
- WVU receives an invitation to become a member of the ACC. This would be appealing to me if Va Tech, and Florida State were to remain in the conference. I would also hope that the ACC extended invites to sPitt, Cuse, and UConn. I would love the natural fit of this conference in terms of rivalry games and geography would fit.
- WVU receives an invitation to become the 14th member of the SEC. Wow you say how can this happen? It can happen because the SEC will want to balance the schedule and their wish list will narrow down quickly. The likely teams they desire are Missouri, Va Tech, Florida State, NC State, UNC, Clemson, West Virginia, and sPitt among others. I know we fall down that list a great deal but due to the fact that those other teams are likely staying put or looking for other homes WVU very well could be the team the SEC decides to take. Were this to happen I would be pretty darned excited.
So how do you see this going down?
Da Geek
6 comments:
I think it will take a little time to shake out. It's too early to pick a likely scenario. Obviously, Notre Dame can hold a lot of these cards if they wish.
The Big Ten has stated that they weren't likely to expand again anytime soon. Given how long they sat with 11 when PSU was added, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't expand again. The Big 12 could probably survive without any trouble by just picking up SMU. That wouldn't surprise me. So the question is who does the SEC go after? If they grab an ACC team, then obviously, the ACC has to adjust and grab somebody. Additionally, while all this takes place, the Big East may make changes themself in order to strengthen their position. All the rhetoric we've heard for the last few years is that the conference wasn't going to sit around and wait to be plucked. The only scenario that would please me is a situation where I'm watching WVU basketball play in the ultra fortified (in it's current state or updated) Big East Conference.
No question weezie the BigEast is a superior basketball conference and any move short of the ACC making a major push for BigEast teams would leave WVU in an inferior conference. I know Huggins is content. Unfortunately, for basketball fans this expansion is football driven. Basketball is just along for the ride. Wherever WVU falls I am confident that it will be in a BCS conference. Oliver Luck is guiding this ship through this storm. As such, WVU lands on its feet.
Da Geek
Check out Kristi Dosh's website, The Business of College Sports.
All of this is generated by TV money. WVU is a decent TV draw but doesn't bring TV sets to a network. For example, if the SEC created its own network, how many subscribers would they get by adding WVU. Unfortunately, not enough. WVU is relying on its reputation as a good competitor and will likely be part of a package deal if and when we go. The ACC makes the most sense to me. But many of the ACC presidents look down their noses at WVU academics. Which is why Oliver Luck has been working on this perception!!!
If the BE doesn't shore itself up somehow, I expect we would likely end up in the ACC eventually. One possibility that hasn't been discussed too much is the idea that all the conferences become "super-conferences." This makes the most sense for WVU.
If the SEC expands to 14 and the Pac 12 and Big Ten soon follow, then why not have every football conference w/ 12-14 teams. The smart move by the BE would be to immediately offer ND the same TV deal and perks that Texas got to join the BE in football. If they don't, tell them to get out. Then you have to get rid of DePaul and Marquette and add another football school to get to 12 and back to 16 in Basketball. If the Big 12 replaced A&M and added a couple other mid majors like BYU, SMU then a lot more schools get shots at the BCS which is a good thing.
Additionally, I think when Oklahoma makes a decision in the next few weeks, it will be to stay in the Big 12.
Of course we're headed toward 16+ team super conferences. The TV revenue is just too much to pass on.
I think Houston is a much more likely target than SMU. The attendance and TV money is there. Texas already has the Dallas market, SMU really doesn't add anything.
The BIG East is the only conference where the Basketball TV contract can be influential. The Big East brings in almost double the revenue as the #2 conference, the ACC. In fact, Louisville is #1 in BBall revenue and could make them enticing to other conferences. However, the Big East is up next with their TV contract negotiations and are unlikely to just re-up with ESPN. They can leverage BBall with football and really bring a lot to offer participating schools. (Maybe the should be looking to go after some other conference players like Kansas and K State, seeing how they may be the ones with the most lose by a Big 12 implosion)
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