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    Monday, August 27, 2012

    Managing Expectations

    Far be from me to rain on the Mounty parade this off season, but with the time upon us, it's time to look at what we should really be expecting this year.

    The schedule this years seems to start low and build to a crescendo on Nov 17 with Oklahoma coming to town.  I think this will help us ease into Big XII waters, but it doesn't make up for the depth in this league.  We'll have 9 league games.  That's one more than they play in the SEC and 2 more than we've played in the Big East.  Which means the league has an extra week to beat up on each other.  That's a HUGE disadvantage for anyone in the Big XII.  The conference guarantees itself an additional 5 losses among league teams.

    Now I've seen the preseason poles that say we should be favored in all but the OU game.  That may in fact be true, but we were favorites against Syracuse and Louisville last year as well.  We also won our last 3 regular season games against Cinci, Pitt, and USF by a combined 7 points.

    So looking at the schedule, I can't pinpoint the losses but I think 9-3 would be a good year.  Maybe one loss in October and two in November.  I worry about the team's mind set the week after OU with the conference perennial  upset architect Iowa State.  That will probably be good enough for a 2nd place tie, as I think a team with one loss will win the Conference.

    On the positive, I think the offense will be as advertised.  This is the best line we've had since Rodriquez left town.  Our skill players have been covered enough that everyone knows about them.   My concern is the defense.  I think they'll be fundamentally sound and will develop as the year goes on, but the inexperience is bound to lead to missed assignments and a lot base coverage schemes.  I know they're emphasizing turning the ball over which is great, but this can't come at the expense of fundamental tackling!  A very lackluster NO Saints defense won the Superbowl that way.  But that was a team of vets who knew what they could and couldn't get away with....except that whole bounty thing, but that's another story.

    This week  WVU 48  Marshall 14.

    Similar to last year, I expect a lot of lighting and the game to be over by the third quarter.  Maybe it will even rain.  No way Marshall has the horses to keep up.  May this series end as it began and every other game, with a WVU victory.

    1 comment:

    weezie said...

    As far as expectations go, 9-3 seems like a fair assessment. I think most of us would be disappointed with that however. With this being Geno's final campaign, there is a lot at stake for them to have a signature season. The offense is so explosive, they have a fair to good chance to win any game they play. While it's unreasonable to expect them to win all of those games, it will probably be disappointing if they lose 3 of them.

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