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    Tuesday, November 1, 2011

    Da Geek's Big East Power Rankings and Bowl Projections 11/01/2011:



    1. Cincinnati remains the only unbeaten team in Big East play.  Next up for the Bearcats is at Pitt.  This game may pose some problems for the Bearcats.  The Panthers while gimping into the game without their premier player have somehow figured out how to throw the ball.  I am not a proponent of Tino, but he did have a decent day on Wednesday.  Okay Bearcat faithful I concede that was against UConn but the Panthers know what is at stake and they like the Mountaineers are among the teams with Cincinnati who control their destiny simply by winning.  For this reason Cincinnati better come ready to play.  For at least one more week, the Bearcats would be looking to play in a BCS game this postseason.   
    2. WVU after an abysmal 6 quarters of play finally got on track on defense and held Rutgers scoreless in the second half.  They have, with the help of a choking Syracuse team, put themselves in a position to control their destiny in the league.  They are facing a Louisville team in Morgantown this weekend, whose defense, is best described as stingy.  They simply haven’t given up very many points this season to anyone.  Of course they haven’t scored that many either.  However, Louisville is on a two game winning streak that at least makes one start to forget their losses to FIU and Marshall.  WVU with a win at home sets up a huge clash with Cincinnati.  In the meantime the Eers get to advance one spot in the power rankings.  As for where they are projected in the post season, they are now officially bowl eligible for the 10th straight year.  They are likely going to end up in the Belk Bowl as Notre Dame has all but locked up the Champs Sports Bowl Bid.  Bad news for the rest of the Big East teams.  The reality is that the Eers need win one other game to lock up the third place bowl tie in as their always going to be the pick of any big east tie in that can take them when Notre Dame isn’t mucking up the works.   
    3. Pitt makes a splash in the Big East power rankings for basically showing up.  With the complete choke of the Orange this week Pitt moves into the 3 spot simply because they are one of 3 teams in the Big East that still control their own fate by simply winning.  That will be no easy task as they lost their best player to a season ending injury, but in this league stranger things have happened.  A win over the Bearcats turns this season into a very interesting one in deed.  They do get them at home but still have to face the Mountaineers the day after Thanksgiving in Morgantown.  For this reason they are staying in the third position as they are least likely to pull this off.  In terms of post season play Pitt is looking more and more likely as a candidate for the Beef O-Brady’s Bowl.  They don’t travel particularly well but South Florida is going to have some work to do to get bowl eligible and nobody else is looking that appealing in terms of traveling except maybe Louisville and they have some work to do as well.
    4. Louisville has decided that it likes the taste of winning.  For a second straight week the Cardinals’ have found a way to win.  They simply kicked the crap out of Syracuse.  As I said in WVU’s segment, this team knows how to play defense.  Charlie Strong has instilled a toughness into them that has in the long view of the season panned out well.  They are still several players away from being a good team but with a little help from Pitt they would be able to control their own destiny.  How can it be that a team can lose to FIU and Marshall and still be in it for a BCS bowl slot?  Well realistically they aren’t but mathematically they still have a fighting chance.  For that reason they find themselves moving mightily up the power rankings.  Next up for them are the Eers, this will prove a tough matchup indeed.  Can this team score enough points to win?  I don’t see that happening.  But in this snapshot of the year they have earned the right to this spot in the rankings.   I said last week that they needed to get to the 7 win mark to go bowling.  I have since taken a different position, six wins will suffice.  I now see them as being the team invited to the BVB Compass Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.  Louisville’s fans typically travel and that gives them the edge over an available Syracuse team. 
    5. Rutgers looked like it was about to finally get the Mountaineer Monkey off its back.  But alas the 17 years of futility continued.  Fortunately for the Knights they likely won’t have to face the Eers for several years to come if ever.  What Coach Schiano has to do for the rest of the season is not let the last two games define his team.  They still have wins over both Pitt and Syracuse to their credit.  The season is far from over but realistically they would need a lot of help to factor into the conference title.  Though 2 loss teams can win the conference they would need several pieces to fall into place for them to even get a share of the title.  That would include beating another nemesis of theirs the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Really all Rutgers needs to do is become bowl eligible and they are going to be taken by the Pin Stripe Bowl.   Syracuse just played in that game and likely wouldn’t get the nod over a Rutgers team that need only take a short train ride to the game.  
    6. For the third straight week, the biggest mover in the Power Rankings is Syracuse.  As my prophecy of them not running the table came true in quick and decisive fashion they fall to 6th in the power rankings.  They were simply man-handled by the Cardinals this past weekend.  This team looked nothing like the team that played in the Dome only a week ago.  So what does this mean for them?   It means they went from being in the driver’s seat to having to wait for several scenarios to play out for them to contend for the crown.  As such they are relegated to replacement team status in the bowl picture.  They will need another conference to fall short of meeting its tie in eligibility.   I think that this will happen but haven’t a clue where the Orange shall end up.  Bowling but waiting to see where.
    7. The only reason U Conn remains at this position is due to the fact that they beat the team ranked below them.  What a week effort by the Huskies this past week.  I tell you that game was hard to watch.  Truth be told any game except the brawl is hard to watch when Pitt is the team playing but this game was particularly frustrating.  UConn’s experiment with this quarterback is ceiling its fate I am afraid.   I understand that Coach P. is trying to plan for the future but this is ridiculous.   I frankly don’t see the Huskies winning anther game this year.  As for bowls they are going to be watching them from the comfort of their rooms in the Nutmeg State.  
    8. Well the upside for the bottom feeding Bulls is that they didn’t play a Big East game this past weekend.  As no team has ever won the Big East Championship with three conference losses they are likely relegated to simply playing out this season for a sub-tier bowl.  I think that some conference wins are coming for this team but they now have lost at least the motivation to play for a BCS bowl.  Skip will need to get this team healed up and ready to go to simply make this season bearable for the Tampa faithful.  Look rat the bright side  you live in Tampa.  I am afraid that they like Syracuse will have to hope for some at large bowl slots to open up.  The most likely Big East tie-in that would take them is the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, but they have lots of work to do and Pitt is looking like the more likely candidate at this time.

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