Finals Week.

We're now at the last week for teams to make an impression on the committee.  Of course those that come up a little short will still have a chance to earn some extra credit in the conference tournament.   WVU splits this week against Cincy and USF meaning they technically still have work to do.  They will need to win one of their final two home games against DePaul or Louisville.  If they are upset by DePaul and fall to Louisville, they would still possibly be alive for  a birth, but they would be on life support after dropping 3 of their last 4 games against questionable competition.   Unfortunately, for WVU they come up short against all the teams they are battling with in tiebreaker scenarios.  Head to head losses against UC and Syracuse 'cause them to come up short against them and in any three way scenarios, Providence has an advantage over WVU because of their victory over Pitt.

I can't believe that Providence could finish tied for 6th in the Big East, knock off the #1 team in the country, and not make the NCAA Tournament, but that is what is shaping up to happen.  They were only 8-4 in their pre-conference schedule and the competition was very sketchy.  13 of the Friars' 18 wins are against teams outside of the RPI top 100.  The Friars have one game left at Villanova and if they win that and finish 11-7, I can't imagine they would be left out.  But they will likely lose that game and that means their Big East Tournament games will be very important.   Oddly enough, the victory over Pitt would give Providence the edge in a three way tie with WVU and Syracuse/Cincinnati and earn them the 6 or 7 seed.  WVU would have the advantage over Providence only if Syracuse and Cincinnati are not involved in the tie.  

Syracuse is also looking at a possible split in their remaining two games having to face Rutgers and travel to Marquette.   Though Syracuse could very well upset Marquette as they will still be adjusting to the loss of James and they did not impress this weekend.  Additionally, Marquette will be coming off a stretch of playing UConn, Louisville, and Pitt.   Syracuse will be in the NCAA tourney if they split as their strength of schedule and RPI are impressive enough.  Syracuse will finish ahead of WVU in all tiebreaker scenarios.

Cincinnati must win both of their final games to have a chance.    They travel to South Florida and finish up at home versus Seton Hall.  Their RPI (53) is right on the edge for a bubble team and they cannot afford to be at 9-9 and in 9th place.  If that happens, they may need to win 3 games in NY to convince the NCAA committee that they are worthy.  They would also hold an advantage over WVU in a tiebreaker with 2 or 3 teams.   

Georgetown and Notre Dame are finished.  They would have to win out their final 2 games and probably win three games in the Big East Tournament.  It's certainly not impossible, but I'd be willing to bet against it heavily at this point.  

As I look at all this, it appears the Louisville game becomes very important.  However, it's only important for seeding in the Big East tournament.  If WVU beats DePaul and loses to Louisville, they could still end up as the 9 seed in NY, but it shouldn't affect their status for the NCAA's given their huge advantage in RPI and schedule strength over Cincinnati and Providence.