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    Sunday, February 22, 2009

    Evaluating the 2009 WVU Football Slate

    WVU will play host to Liberty (9/5/09),  Colorado (9/26/09), Marshall (10/3/09), East Carolina, Louisville, Connecticut, and sPitt

    WVU will travel to Auburn, Syracuse, Rutgers, South Florida, and Cincinnati

    As I look prematurely at this slate of games I am forced to ponder at least 3 things. (1) Is it winnable? (2) Is it a program growing? and (3) Is it an entertaining for the home crowd?

    (1) Is it winnable?

    Admittedly, how the heck could that be evaluated at this point.  We only know when 3 of those games are going to be played at this point so the "timing element" can't be evaluated.  We don't really no how to evaluate our own team, and we only have historical data on the opponents. The truth is that this evaluation is nothing but contemplation but this is a blog and we are in the football off-season so here-goes:  

    Liberty is a 1AA (FCS) school that we should mop the floor with.  At least that should be the case on paper.

    Colorado should be competitive next year but playing them in Morgantown should bode well for the Eers.  

    Marshall simply better be a W.

    East Carolina has lost just about everything that made them competitive last year.  And they have not won in Morgantown.  I am feeling that the W at home is going to happen.

    Louisville is coming off one of their worst seasons in recent memory.  They also have lost Hunter Cantwell so this game looks good for WVU particularly at home.

    UConn is arguably problematic as they have the most Senior laden team on our Big East Home slate.  However, they have not beaten us to date so I think this game is a winner.

    sPitt is never one that anyone should bet the house on but this season with Shady McCoy gone I am feeling better than I do in most years.  

    Auburn is a big question mark as they have fired Tommy Tuberville (idiots), I really don't know but they are in a state of flux so it certainly is a good time to play them there.

    Syracuse well what can I say it is Cuse home or away no matter this is a winner.  New coach same team.

    Rutgers this game should be a winner even away.  Mainly because they have lost so much offensively.  

    South Florida is going to be the prohibitive favorite to win the conference next year.  Senior QB makes them problematic. Playing them in Tampa is a problem.  This game has a big ole "?" around it.  

    Cincinnati has lost much of its defense to graduation, however they return 2 time Big East Coach of the Year Brian Kelly thus they will be tough to contend with I would think that they are another "?". 
    So of course my early prediction is a prayer 12-0, a hopeful 10-2, and a likely 8-4. 

    (2) Is it program growing?

    With 10 plus wins any schedule can be program growing.  
    With 9 or less wins another evaluation is necessary.  I will attempt to grade this slate with an A-F scale.  (F is 0 pts. A is 4 pts. so the overall grade will be measured by total points divided by 12)

    Liberty F   There is simply no upside to playing a FCS opponent short of filling the 12 games. This is the curse of being in an 8 team conference, our school must always schedule 5 out of conference foes.  Even if WVU was trying to recruit someone from Lynchburg VA this game is really no help in that endeavor as we are playing in Morgantown.

    Colorado B  This is a good game for WVU against another BCS conference foe.  The only downside to this game is that we are likely not competing with Colorado for many recruits thus why it is not graded as an A game.

    Marshall D  This is a game that really has no upside for WVU except maybe ticket sales.  It is a Non-BCS foe with no real recruiting implications.  

    East Carolina C  This is a team that we unfortunately still compete with for recruits.  Thus it is an important game for us. The major downside to this foe is that it is against a Non-BCS foe.

    Louisville B  This is a Big East foe that we battle with for recruits.

    UConn   B  Some Big East Foe New York area recruiting.

    sPitt  A  Rivalry game Big East Foe and our biggest rival on recruiting trail.  Always on television.  

    Auburn A  While this is arguably the second "down" year for Auburn it is an SEC opponent in a region that we recruit.  This game should be regionally televised.  Obviously more valuable as a win but this game does nothing but help the program.

    Syracuse C  this game does nothing to help us on recruiting trail as they are not a factor there right now.  It is a Big East foe though.

    Rutgers B  Even though we have had their number in recent years they are a Big East Foe and we recruit heavily in the same places.  

    USF  A  This team will as I said above be the prohibitive favorite to win the Big East next season they are a Big East Foe and they reside in Florida this game is always important as a program builder, but this season maybe even more so.

    Cincinnati B  Big East Foe  Recruiting rival and becoming a relevant team nationally.

    The overall schedule grades out at a C+ (2.667)  So short of 10 wins this schedule could do little to help us as a program builder.  

    (3) Is it entertaining for the home crowd?  Scale is Great-4; Good-3; OK-2; Bad-1; Ugly-0.

    Liberty  UGLY  (I am not even sure as the season opener that this will sell out.)
    Colorado  GREAT (Novelty game against Big 12 foe)
    Marshall  OK (Evaluated as OK, not so much for the game as for the tailgating.)
    East Carolina GOOD (We have played them for so long that it has become relevant to crowd.)
    Louisville GOOD (Regional rivalry game.)
    UConn OK  (This game has some growing to do before it will move into the Good category.)
    sPitt GREAT (What can I say always interesting against our most hated rival.)  

    Overall this is an OK+ (2.57) slate of home games.

    As you can see from this admittedly flawed and early evaluation of next years slate of games I have come down to this it is a likely 8 or better win season with an average schedule in terms of program growth with an average home slate for the Mountaineer faithful.  I look forward to a vigorous debate on the same.

    DaGeek
     

    2 comments:

    Anonymous said...

    It's a tough break that Auburn is in the middle of a tailspin therefore giving us a very weak schedule again. Only Liberty is new on our schedule and they will be a downgrade from Villanova. Only two (maybe 3) teams that we play will be expected to be better in 2009 than they were in 2008, South Florida and Colorado. I'm not certain of Brown's status at UConn, though they may be better too if he is returning. But UConn has more upgrading to do with their facilities to become more than a very good mid major program playing in a major conference. Syracuse may also be better next year, but nobody will notice and therefore they don't count.

    The Louisville rivalry is not really a rivalry except maybe on the recruiting trail. WVU has stayed competitive in the BE while Kragthorpe quickly has UL becoming the next Orangemen of the league. As that will continue until he is fired, Louisville will not be a rivalry for anyone besides UK.

    I'm not implying that WVU should roll through their schedule because they probably won't, but they are facing a weaker schedule than last years and that schedule did not earn any respect. I'd give their schedule a C- with less props going to Louisville, but understanding that they are basically being forced to play Liberty because ACC and SEC teams aren't willing to trade home games with us.

    This is why the Big East desperately needs to expand the conference to another team. This can only be accomplished by kicking someone out in basketball and other sports and it's way past time to tell Notre Dame to hit the damn road. Their involvement in Basketball and other sports does VERY little to increase revenue or exposure and the league will not lose anything competitively by booting them. However, an addition of another decent football program would greatly improve the ticket sales, TV exposure and respect of the football teams in the conference.

    Greg said...

    Note: I saw Brown at the recruiting combine, he's gone.

    It looks like a 9-3 or 10-2 schedule to me. But you never know how the team will come together after losing their offensive nucleas. The D should be exeptional next year.

    Overall, I think we'll be competing for a Big East championship with South Florida and Cinci, but I don't think the conference will get much love next year.

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