After Louisville's first loss, to Kentucky, I figured the loss was indicative of Kentucky having a good offense and succeeding in outdueling the Cardinals in what was clearly a last-one-to-score-wins shootout. It didn't much change my opinion of them as a nearly-elite team.
Then Syracuse happened. My thought then was that Louisville had an elite offense, but a defense so incredibly bad that they could either lose to anyone or beat anyone. Because the latter was true, it was not a team to be overlooked- they could ruin anyone's season.
But then there was the Utah game. Then being limited to 17 points in a loss to UConn. Not to mention that they came one botched handoff between Pat Bostick and Shady McCoy away from going to OT against Pitt. Any single one of these outcomes could happen to a good team that gets a series of bad breaks throughout a game (see USF-WVU). But all of those outcomes? Now Louisville might not even become bowl eligible, and on paper they seem considerably worse than West Virginia's upcoming opponents the Bearcats and the Huskies.
Yet my gut feeling is that Louisville is more of a threat to beat West Virginia than the other two (not that the other two should be overlooked). The sense I get is that Brohm is still solid and a threat to score points. But I wonder if the woes of their defense, most of which seem to have come from an inability to cover in the passing game, will be mitigated by the fact that West Virginia runs the vast majority of the time.
So, a question... what have your observations been about the nature of Louisville's defensive weaknesses? Is it solely that they can't cover properly and allow receivers to get wide open, or is it a tendency to overpursue and general lack of tackling prowess? If it's the latter, I think we're in for a blowout. If it's the former, then things could get interesting if Brohm and his receivers return to form on national TV and the defense manages more than a few stops.
And finally, is the statistically improved Mountaineer defense a match for the Cardinals' passing game (if it shows up) or is a playing-to-potential Louisville offense on a different level than what West Virginia has faced so far?
1 comment:
My prediction for the outcome of this game is that WVU wins by 21 points. I think that we will have some scored on us but we should be held to no less that 42. The Ville shall not be able to score that much on us. For some reason I am just really confident about this game. I think that Pat White and company are in for a showcase type game. The tend to get "geeked" up for night games on national TV. I am not discounting the many fine cautionary points of your post, however I think that we are a much better team.
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